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Welcome to 2022! Red wave coming? What will Trump do?

Updated: Jan 23



Not Just Pollack-Tics with David Pollack


Sick of staring at bare shelves yet? Gas prices high enough? How about waiting in line for hours to find out whether the symptoms you’re experiencing is a cold or COVID? Hint…it’s probably COVID. Ah yes friends, it’s 2022. Joe Biden remains President and Democrats still hold a slim majority in the House and Senate. Alas, if the thought of continued single party rule over the country into this next year concerns you, fear not as there is hope on the horizon. As the adage goes: “Red sky at night, sailor’s delight,” and red skies…red skies are coming.

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Thanks in part to Mr. Biden’s historically low approval ratings and his failure in handling, well…just about everything, it’s almost certain that the Republicans will take control of the House and possibly even the Senate in the 2022 mid-term elections. More than twenty house Democrats have already announced their resignation effective at the end of their terms, especially in those races where re-election seems unlikely. Even House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), is expected to call it quits at the end of the year. President Biden’s plummeting popularity also has his key policy initiatives stalling in the Senate, like his multitrillion-dollar social spending slush fund ironically known as “Build Back Better,” and his so-called voter’s rights bill titled, “For the People Act,” which he emphatically says is not about who gets to vote, but who counts the vote. You might recognize a similar phrase credited to communist dictator and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin who said something along the lines of, “Those who vote decide nothing, those who count the vote decide everything.” You should expect the media to quickly provide cover for that one. Nevertheless, with the filibuster intact, it seems that America is already beginning to get some much-needed relief from any additional “fundamental changes” threatened by the Biden Administration.


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With a Congressional power shift almost inevitable, the question remains whether Donald J. Trump will once again ceremoniously descend an escalator to announce his bid to Make America Great Again, Again. Of course, the next obvious question is whether Mar-a-Lago has an escalator.


So, will he, or won’t he? It’s what every politico is talking about these days, even though the next U.S. presidential election is still three years away. It’s highly relevant, especially for Republicans who are huddling with advisors on how to handle the “Trump situation.” Many Congressional hopefuls are wondering whether their support for the former president will help or hurt their campaigns. Democrats are also very curious, possibly even scared that he’ll run, especially folks like Hillary Clinton, who is still hanging around like those who might have otherwise leaked her closely guarded family secrets. So…let’s get right to it. What will Trump do? What should he do?


The case for Trump to run.


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America is in the toilet…economically, morally and politically. Violent crime including murder is up in our Nation’s biggest cities. Thefts and other petty crimes are also on the rise in liberal communities thanks to bail elimination initiatives, which allow many criminals to remain out on the streets. The Biden Administration has shown that it has no answer for the many ongoing crises from a new COVID-19 surge, a lack of testing, unavailable lifesaving therapeutics, to rapid inflation, supply chain issues, labor shortages, a worsening border crisis and growing global unrest. These are proving to be nagging problems for this President and I’m not sure the public is confident he can handle any of it, especially in between all the napping. Regardless of how anyone feels about Mr. Trump personally, the growing consensus is that things were better when he was in charge at the White House. In fact, there’s probably never been a better time for the former President to launch a legitimate, “miss me yet?” campaign.


Understandably, some are concerned that Mr. Trump’s controversial personality might motivate those all-important swing voters to turn back towards an increasingly unpopular President Biden. While Trump’s mean tweets probably didn’t give those suburban soccer moms the warm and fuzzies, I’m sure most at this point, would trade some mean tweets for $1.75 gasoline and well stocked grocery shelves. Things have gotten so difficult for working families and small businesses under this Administration that many who begrudgingly voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 election would likely enthusiastically switch their votes to Trump, like an alleged Dominion voting machine…but in reverse.


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For those who think the Republicans should nominate someone new, someone more palatable to the voters, like Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida (R), Gov. Greg Abbot of Texas (R), or even Rep. Matt Gates (R-FL). You can rest assured that it wouldn’t be long before Democrats and their allies in the media and big tech unite to destroy them, just as they did with Donald Trump and the many Republicans that came before him. In fact, they’ve already begun their assault on Gov. DeSantis and Rep. Gates on the mere chance that they could run for president in 2024. No matter who the Republican’s nominate, by the time the election rolls around, they’ll certainly be labeled a racist, sexist, anti-science, COVID denying, anti-poor, homophobic, transphobic, white supremacist, etc., regardless of their race, religion, gender, ethnicity, or sexuality. Before long, they too would be banned on Twitter and Facebook, blocked on YouTube, and erased from search engines in order to protect the public from their harmful messages. Few could withstand such a coordinated onslaught of misinformation, and no one is more equipped to handle it than Donald J. Trump.


Finally, Mr. Trump has proven his ability to be a driving force for new Republican voter registrations. He continues to inspire conservative Republicans, Democrats, Libertarians, and other typically non-party affiliated voters to become active members of a new, more Trump-centric Republican party. Sometimes referred to as “red-pill” Republicans, these folks are typically more loyal to President Trump and his America First policies than they are to the party itself. If Republicans hope to inspire a robust, grass roots driven ground operation in the mid-terms and beyond, having Trump at the top of their 2024 presidential ticket would give them their best shot in achieving much needed gains in an area where Democrats have traditionally held the advantage.


The case for why Trump won’t run.


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Now that we’ve explored the case for why Mr. Trump could run, or dare I say should run, I’m not convinced that he will run. For starters, we all know Mr. Trump is a brilliant businessman, and his influence might just be his most powerful negotiating tool. He maintains the argument that he won re-election. Many on the right believe that he did as well. Should he run again and lose, or perhaps actually lose…he’ll no longer have the influence or popularity that he currently enjoys. Instead of being able to claim he was elected, “twice,” he would have to contend with the fact that he lost, “twice.” I’d argue there’s nothing Donald Trump hates more than losing so I’m not sure he’d wager his winning reputation on another presidential election unless he was confident that he would win. While Joe Biden’s failures might just boost Trump’s confidence, I think it is more likely that he’ll sit back and enjoy the fear shared by both Democrats and establishment Republicans alike, at the possibility that he could run. This fear cements his role as a kingmaker in the Republican party. Do as he says or face the consequences of his candidacy. We’ve seen the pre-Trump era elections where the Republican hopefuls filed into Trump National Golf Club Bedminster, one after the next to kiss the ring. That ring is even more polished these days, to the displeasure of many traditional GOP’ers I’m sure. If Mr. Trump can run again, and even might run again, there will be no greater influence in the Republican Party for the next one or two presidential elections. I’m sure Mr. Trump would rather keep it that way.


Case in point, I recently attended the President Donald J. Trump and Bill O’Reilly History Tour where the President was asked about Gov. Ron DeSantis to the roar of the friendly Florida crowd. Trump paused and replied in a way only Trump could, “Oh Ron, I remember when he came to me and asked for my endorsement for governor of Florida.” He continued to tell a story about when Mr. DeSantis was just a congressman and not very well-known, according to Mr. Trump. He said that he told “Ron”, as he referred to the popular governor of Florida, that he didn’t think he had much of a shot but since he was supportive of Trump and his agenda, he agreed to endorse him. Trump bragged that Mr. DeSantis shot up 20 points in the polls as a result, essentially taking credit for the popular governor’s success. Is he right, very likely…but the fact that this is the way he views the power and importance of his endorsement shows you how much he values his relevance and influence in the Republican party.


As I mentioned earlier, Donald Trump is a brilliant businessman, and he knows an opportunity when he sees it. With a red wave all but guaranteed, there is a unique opportunity for the former President to issue some risk-free endorsements and then sit back and take credit for a “Yuge” red wave and add that victory to his enormous legacy. A legacy that includes the best economy in decades, record oil and gas production with low prices at the pump, three U.S. Supreme Court Justices, meaningful immigration enforcement, hundreds of federal judge appointments, record low unemployment across many categories, and a host of foreign policy wins from the destruction of ISIS, de-escalation of the North Korea weapons conflict, moving the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and getting our NATO partners to pay their fair share, among others. It’s hard to imagine a more successful résumé in term two, although if anyone can do it, it’s Donald J. Trump.


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For now, I guess the only one who really knows what Donald Trump is going to do, is Donald Trump himself. If one thing is certain, when the red wave commeth, Mr. Trump will undoubtedly ensure that he remains the force behind the rising tide, a historic tide, that lifted all boats.

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